Options catalyst watch
Which liquid chains showed the strongest combined evidence of an options-implied catalyst on Oct 8, 2026?
A transparent 0–100 cross-sectional score built from four equally weighted groups: volatility level, front-versus-back term premium, volume/open-interest activity, and skew/smile shape. Correlated measurements share a group so one volatility surface does not receive several votes. This flags unusual pricing, not a known event or expected direction. Data through close. Descriptive only, not a recommendation.
At a glance
50 tickers qualified. First five: NLY (88.1 · 25Δ risk reversal -258.8 pp; OI change 1.23σ; front IV premium 10.0 pp), HUM (82.6 · front IV premium 64.7 pp; OI change 0.91σ; volume/OI 0.21), MAT (81.6 · OI change 2.33σ; volume/OI 0.30; smile convexity -19.9 pp), SBUX (81.0 · volume/OI 0.19; smile convexity -17.2 pp; IV rank 100), BBBY (79.6 · 25Δ risk reversal 244.6 pp; IV rank 100; OI change 0.55σ).
| # | Ticker | Close | Open interest | Catalyst score / strongest drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NLY | 18.27 | 195,303 | 88.1 · 25Δ risk reversal -258.8 pp; OI change 1.23σ; front IV premium 10.0 pp |
| 2 | HUM | 387.12 | 178,592 | 82.6 · front IV premium 64.7 pp; OI change 0.91σ; volume/OI 0.21 |
| 3 | MAT | 16.58 | 166,572 | 81.6 · OI change 2.33σ; volume/OI 0.30; smile convexity -19.9 pp |
| 4 | SBUX | 93.21 | 476,750 | 81.0 · volume/OI 0.19; smile convexity -17.2 pp; IV rank 100 |
| 5 | BBBY | 4.36 | 107,296 | 79.6 · 25Δ risk reversal 244.6 pp; IV rank 100; OI change 0.55σ |
| 6 | LQDA | 28.02 | 241,380 | 79.6 · front IV premium 69.3 pp; OI change 0.76σ; 25Δ risk reversal 141.2 pp |
| 7 | VST | 156.14 | 560,538 | 78.7 · OI change 0.89σ; IV rank 100; volume/OI 0.15 |
| 8 | CMG | 32.65 | 917,561 | 78.7 · volume/OI 0.23; OI change 0.50σ; smile convexity 12.0 pp |
| 9 | UEC | 9.14 | 226,070 | 77.8 · smile convexity 423.1 pp; OI change 0.46σ; IV rank 98 |
| 10 | TMF | 25.92 | 266,570 | 77.7 · volume/OI 0.13; OI change 0.50σ; front IV premium 4.9 pp |
| 11 | BULL | 5.95 | 1,094,650 | 77.4 · OI change 1.70σ; front IV premium 16.7 pp; IV rank 91 |
| 12 | TSCO | 33.48 | 140,796 | 75.8 · front IV premium 8.5 pp; volume/OI 0.12; OI change 0.34σ |
| 13 | T | 24.89 | 1,026,649 | 75.7 · volume/OI 0.12; front IV premium 5.0 pp; 25Δ risk reversal -20.9 pp |
| 14 | APLD | 23.85 | 919,651 | 75.7 · OI change 1.82σ; volume/OI 0.25; IV rank 98 |
| 15 | DAL | 82.14 | 520,042 | 75.5 · front IV premium 17.9 pp; volume/OI 0.16; IV rank 98 |
| 16 | PM | 200.50 | 144,428 | 75.5 · IV rank 100; smile convexity 16.9 pp; OI change 0.39σ |
| 17 | XE | 13.77 | 138,176 | 75.4 · smile convexity 32.1 pp; IV rank 100; front IV premium 9.1 pp |
| 18 | ASML | 1,769.79 | 187,680 | 75.4 · front IV premium 18.9 pp; volume/OI 0.12; IV rank 93 |
| 19 | GLXY | 20.08 | 340,081 | 74.2 · smile convexity -562.9 pp; OI change 0.47σ; volume/OI 0.09 |
| 20 | BMY | 59.58 | 767,976 | 74.0 · OI change 0.91σ; smile convexity 20.1 pp; IV rank 100 |
| 21 | ACN | 208.36 | 289,162 | 74.0 · IV rank 100; front IV premium 8.1 pp; volume/OI 0.10 |
| 22 | MAGS | 73.03 | 161,138 | 73.6 · smile convexity 30.1 pp; IV rank 100; 25Δ risk reversal 128.3 pp |
| 23 | MDT | 87.75 | 285,221 | 73.5 · volume/OI 0.30; front IV premium 9.2 pp; smile convexity 13.2 pp |
| 24 | CZR | 29.52 | 136,403 | 73.4 · front IV premium 28.6 pp; IV rank 100; 25Δ risk reversal 50.3 pp |
| 25 | CEG | 285.07 | 232,448 | 73.3 · IV rank 100; OI change 0.48σ; front IV premium 4.5 pp |
| 26 | AEO | 17.97 | 125,904 | 73.2 · IV rank 100; volume/OI 0.16; 25Δ risk reversal 15.9 pp |
| 27 | CVS | 87.80 | 342,639 | 73.2 · IV rank 100; front IV premium 7.6 pp; OI change 0.53σ |
| 28 | IBKR | 86.47 | 138,507 | 72.9 · front IV premium 20.6 pp; IV rank 100; OI change 0.36σ |
| 29 | USB | 57.03 | 192,612 | 72.7 · front IV premium 11.8 pp; smile convexity 13.8 pp; IV rank 95 |
| 30 | TLN | 359.22 | 145,577 | 72.6 · OI change 1.59σ; front IV premium 10.3 pp; IV rank 100 |
| 31 | VOO | 711.28 | 124,973 | 72.3 · OI change 0.94σ; IV rank 100; smile convexity 13.5 pp |
| 32 | XHB | 95.66 | 102,649 | 72.3 · IV rank 100; volume/OI 0.09; front IV premium 3.9 pp |
| 33 | ABCL | 12.02 | 171,120 | 72.1 · IV rank 100; front IV premium 8.4 pp; OI change 0.54σ |
| 34 | PEP | 128.34 | 419,490 | 72.1 · OI change 1.32σ; volume/OI 0.21; smile convexity 11.6 pp |
| 35 | AXP | 308.10 | 249,007 | 72.0 · IV rank 100; volume/OI 0.08; front IV premium 2.1 pp |
| 36 | CIEN | 425.93 | 124,991 | 71.9 · smile convexity 19.9 pp; front IV premium 5.3 pp; OI change 0.41σ |
| 37 | XLB | 49.27 | 225,384 | 71.9 · front IV premium 12.1 pp; smile convexity 19.2 pp; IV rank 98 |
| 38 | JPM | 331.42 | 671,687 | 71.3 · front IV premium 10.2 pp; OI change 0.45σ; volume/OI 0.09 |
| 39 | GS | 882.59 | 478,460 | 71.3 · front IV premium 10.4 pp; OI change 0.37σ; IV rank 82 |
| 40 | XLI | 168.40 | 517,797 | 71.0 · IV rank 100; OI change 0.37σ; smile convexity 9.2 pp |
| 41 | KO | 87.77 | 693,508 | 70.3 · IV rank 100; 25Δ risk reversal -68.7 pp |
| 42 | GFL | 42.33 | 544,138 | 70.0 · OI change 2.84σ; front IV premium 18.2 pp; smile convexity 17.9 pp |
| 43 | VZ | 46.35 | 914,114 | 69.8 · smile convexity 71.5 pp; volume/OI 0.15; front IV premium 6.3 pp |
| 44 | STX | 774.83 | 332,637 | 69.2 · OI change 0.77σ; volume/OI 0.10 |
| 45 | JETS | 27.48 | 302,180 | 68.9 · 25Δ risk reversal -187.5 pp; front IV premium 7.6 pp |
| 46 | RCL | 281.39 | 110,540 | 68.5 · volume/OI 0.27; OI change 0.78σ; IV rank 84 |
| 47 | KOPN | 4.20 | 132,692 | 68.4 · front IV premium 11.8 pp; 25Δ risk reversal -26.2 pp; volume/OI 0.09 |
| 48 | HUT | 79.59 | 279,273 | 68.4 · volume/OI 0.27; smile convexity -18.6 pp; front IV premium 5.0 pp |
| 49 | TEVA | 39.25 | 298,492 | 68.2 · IV rank 100; smile convexity 10.9 pp; front IV premium 2.1 pp |
| 50 | HLF | 12.82 | 139,156 | 68.1 · front IV premium 16.9 pp; IV rank 100; 25Δ risk reversal -29.9 pp |
Screens describe what the data shows after the close. They are not trade recommendations; see the disclaimer and the methodology.