MRNA max pain, gamma exposure (GEX) & options open interest
As of close · rank #133 by open interest · 1,394 sessions of history since Dec 1, 2020
MRNA's nearest-expiration max pain is 165.00 for 2026-10-09, its GEX flip is 168.58, net GEX is 6,527,500, its put/call open-interest ratio is 1.39. These are whole-chain derived aggregates as of Oct 2, 2026 close.
Whole-chain analytics
Derived after the close from the same dated options chain. Signed gamma exposure uses calls positive and puts negative; it is a model convention, not observed dealer inventory.
Advanced options analysis
Complete derived analysis from the dated chain, normalized where possible for comparison across tickers. Catalyst intensity measures unusual pricing and activity; it does not identify an event, predict direction, or establish that an investment is attractive.
Strongest relative signals: volume/OI 0.15 · 7d expected move +11.4%
MRNA closed 8.8% below its gamma max of 206.80. It is 14.3% above the delta neutral price of 162.83. Total open interest is 757,506, -9.4% versus the previous session. Its options catalyst-intensity score is 45.2 out of 100, led by volume/OI 0.15, 7d expected move +11.4%. What gamma max means · What delta neutral means
Call versus put open interest changes
Growth compares outstanding contracts on each side. A positive growth gap favors calls; a negative gap favors puts. Standardized surprises compare each measure with its own prior history. These describe the OI balance, not IV skew or buying direction.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Call OI change, 1 session | -42,931 contracts · -11.9% |
| Put OI change, 1 session | -35,308 contracts · -7.4% |
| Call minus put OI growth, 1 session | -4.5 pp |
| Call OI change, 5 sessions | -8,542 contracts · -2.6% |
| Put OI change, 5 sessions | +4,048 contracts · +0.9% |
| Call minus put OI growth, 5 sessions | -3.5 pp |
| Daily call OI change surprise | -1.15σ (252 prior changes) |
| Daily put OI change surprise | -1.30σ (252 prior changes) |
| Daily call-minus-put growth surprise | -0.79σ (252 prior changes) |
History
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Analysis visualizations
Derived from the 2026-10-02 options chain. Select an analysis to explore its chart.
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Gamma walls
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What followed prior gamma-max crosses?
Each historical path starts at 0% on the cross date and follows the close for ten subsequent trading sessions. Cohorts use the same direction as labelled and require gamma max to be within 10% of the close on both crossing sessions.
Crosses below gamma max 27 completed Day +10 paths · latest Sep 25, 2026
| Horizon | n | Median | Middle 50% | Above zero | Nominal ≥90% median interval | Confidence floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day +1 | 29 | +0.4% | -1.9% to +2.6% | 52% | -0.9% to +1.6% | 0.0% |
| Day +2 | 29 | +1.5% | -2.9% to +6.7% | 59% | -1.0% to +3.5% | 0.0% |
| Day +3 | 29 | +0.3% | -3.5% to +7.5% | 52% | -2.8% to +3.0% | 0.0% |
| Day +4 | 29 | -0.9% | -5.5% to +11.7% | 41% | -3.7% to +4.0% | 0.0% |
| Day +5 | 29 | -1.9% | -5.5% to +7.4% | 41% | -4.8% to +4.1% | 0.0% |
| Day +6 | 28 | -2.1% | -6.8% to +5.6% | 46% | -5.6% to +3.8% | 0.0% |
| Day +7 | 28 | -0.9% | -6.5% to +7.5% | 39% | -5.2% to +3.6% | 0.0% |
| Day +8 | 27 | -3.5% | -7.6% to +10.8% | 48% | -5.8% to +6.3% | 0.0% |
| Day +9 | 27 | -0.0% | -6.7% to +7.0% | 48% | -4.2% to +5.9% | 0.0% |
| Day +10 | 27 | +0.3% | -8.5% to +5.5% | 52% | -5.2% to +4.9% | 0.0% |
Crosses above gamma max 33 completed Day +10 paths · latest Sep 24, 2026
| Horizon | n | Median | Middle 50% | Above zero | Nominal ≥90% median interval | Confidence floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day +1 | 35 | +0.6% | -1.4% to +3.0% | 57% | -0.7% to +2.1% | 0.0% |
| Day +2 | 35 | +0.4% | -3.5% to +5.2% | 54% | -1.5% to +3.4% | 0.0% |
| Day +3 | 35 | +3.1% | -3.4% to +7.7% | 60% | -1.2% to +5.5% | 0.0% |
| Day +4 | 35 | +1.0% | -5.0% to +8.9% | 51% | -2.0% to +8.3% | 0.0% |
| Day +5 | 35 | +3.1% | -4.2% to +10.5% | 54% | -3.0% to +5.9% | 0.0% |
| Day +6 | 35 | +0.7% | -5.5% to +8.2% | 51% | -2.9% to +5.9% | 0.0% |
| Day +7 | 34 | +0.9% | -6.7% to +11.1% | 56% | -5.1% to +9.0% | 0.0% |
| Day +8 | 34 | -1.9% | -6.0% to +11.9% | 47% | -5.1% to +8.5% | 0.0% |
| Day +9 | 34 | -2.5% | -6.7% to +13.8% | 44% | -4.9% to +7.0% | 0.0% |
| Day +10 | 33 | +0.4% | -8.0% to +14.3% | 52% | -3.2% to +9.0% | 0.0% |
Returns are close-to-close after the labelled number of subsequent trading sessions. The confidence floor is the closest-to-zero bound of the order-statistic median interval; it is zero when that interval spans zero. Its coverage is nominally at least 90% under independent observations. Historical paths can overlap, so the interval and floor are descriptive uncertainty guides rather than formal coverage guarantees. Historical, not a forecast.
Last 252 sessions
| Sessions closed above gamma max | 15% |
| Gamma max crosses | 36 |
| Delta neutral crosses | 16 |
| Prior-year sessions closer to gamma max | 60.7% of 252 |
| Prior-year sessions closer to delta neutral | 84.1% of 252 |
| Open interest percentile (1y) | 38th |
| Daily open interest change versus prior year | -1.28σ (-78,239 contracts; 252 prior changes) |
| Open interest change, 5 sessions | -0.6% |
| Open interest change, 21 sessions | -19.6% |
| History available | Dec 1, 2020 → Oct 2, 2026 |
Recent crosses
- closed below gamma max at 198.88 vs 201.21 (-1.2%)
- closed above gamma max at 194.82 vs 192.73 (+1.1%)
- closed below gamma max at 182.11 vs 190.26 (-4.5%)
- closed above gamma max at 172.94 vs 165.59 (+4.2%)
- closed below gamma max at 63.32 vs 69.70 (-10.1%)
- closed above gamma max at 60.57 vs 60.12 (+0.7%)
- closed above delta neutral at 59.17 vs 57.31 (+3.2%)
- closed below delta neutral at 54.82 vs 57.75 (-5.3%)
- closed above delta neutral at 57.92 vs 57.63 (+0.5%)
- closed below delta neutral at 58.07 vs 58.97 (-1.5%)
In today's screens
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Neighbours by open interest
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Canonical source: https://halfonadouble.com/stock/MRNA
Questions people ask about MRNA
Where is MRNA's gamma max today?
As of Oct 2, 2026, the gamma max for MRNA is 206.80, +8.8% from the 190.01 close. Gamma max is the underlying price at which the summed gamma of every open contract is largest; how it is computed and why it matters.
Is MRNA above or below its delta neutral price?
MRNA closed above delta neutral: 190.01 against a delta neutral price of 162.83. The delta neutral price is where the summed delta of the whole chain is zero; the definition.
How much open interest does MRNA have?
757,506 contracts of open interest across 1,145 listed contracts on Oct 2, 2026, -9.4% versus the previous session. What open interest measures.
Levels are recomputed after every trading day from licensed end-of-day options data; only derived aggregates are published. Methodology · Data and licence · Not investment advice.