Wrinkle Brain Plays

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• PFE 06/16 39.5P for $0.70 or less
• PACW 06/16 7.5P for $1.20 or less
• FTCH 06/16 5P for $0.20 or less
• HPQ 06/16 30.5P for $1.00 or less
• RKLB 06/16 4P for $0.05 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• TLT 06/16 102C for $1.45 or less
• UNG 06/16 7C for $0.35 or less
• CVX 06/16 160C for $2.25 or less
• FSR 06/16 6P for $0.55 or less
• XOP 06/16 125P for $3.55 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks—notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It’s the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I’ll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven’t entered in, don’t chase the price. Remember that a new day’s worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.82 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 73%. (Stats as of 2023-04-30)