ยท wrinkle brain plays ยท 3 min read
Wrinkle Brain Plays
Plays for Execution on April 6, 2023. In the style of Buzz Lightyear.
Tickers of Interest - TL;DR
Gamma Max Cross
- T 04/21 19.5P for $0.35 or less
- NEM 04/21 52P for $1.35 or less
- JNJ 04/21 165P for $1.90 or less
- WBA 04/21 35.5P for $0.40 or less
- GDXJ 04/21 41P for $1.05 or less
Delta Neutral Cross
- F 04/21 12P for $0.15 or less
- SNAP 04/21 10.5C for $0.60 or less
- CLF 04/21 17C for $0.60 or less
- ROKU 04/21 62C for $3.05 or less
- IYR 04/21 83.5P for $1.10 or less
Trading Thesis - To Infinity and Beyond! ๐
Technical analysis and indicator-based trading are like navigating the galaxy to predict important price levels today. ๐
This analysis is based on the current option open interest, like a space map for portfolio-level greeksโDelta and Gamma. Once weโve plotted our course, we can simulate the change in greeks at different price points, like warp speed! ๐ซ
For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both, just like a rocket blasting off. ๐
The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflects the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. The best plays benefit from the directional move and the increase in IV, like catching a cometโs tail. ๐
Notes - A little space dust for your helmet
If the price has moved past the entry price, hit the brakes! ๐ Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. Sell half your position on a double and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion, like a daring space escape. ๐ช
FAQ - Because others have already asked, like curious little aliens
- These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? No, itโs just that some companies have had a recent run-up, like a rocket thatโs overextended. ๐
- Are you entering all these plays? No, Iโm just opening my bag of space tools wider to help fellow space cadets find more gain porn. ๐
- You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? The new play should replace the old play, like a shiny new spaceship. ๐ธ
- Where are the crayons? I only see words. Click the links above, like pressing buttons on a control panel. ๐๏ธ
- Have you back-tested this? Yes, results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error). ๐
- What is the historical performance? The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 68% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, thereโs a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 63% and 75%. (Stats as of 2023-03-31) ๐
Now, letโs go make some cosmic gains! To infinity and beyond! ๐๐