{"schema_version":1,"publisher":"Half on a Double","data_through":"2026-10-02","frequency":"end-of-day","methodology":"market-implied-carry-v1","generation":"market-implied-carry-analytics-20260917T000000Z","canonical_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/UPS","markdown_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/UPS.md","history_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/history/UPS.csv","advanced_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/UPS.json?date=2026-10-02","definitions_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/methodology.md","license_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/terms.md","disclaimer_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/disclaimer.md","symbol":"UPS","page_tier":"A","units":{"prices":"USD per share","open_interest":"option contracts","gamma_exposure":"modeled dollar-delta change per USD 1 underlying move","gamma_exposure_normalized":"modeled gamma exposure per 100,000 open option contracts","distances":"percent of close","forward_outcomes":"close-to-close percent return"},"snapshot":{"close":93.02999877929688,"previous_close":93.91000366210938,"delta_neutral":97.69454975111296,"gamma_neutral":96.51442231908308,"gamma_max":109.74011576822323,"total_open_interest":386738,"previous_open_interest":394655,"listed_contracts":616,"listed_calls":364,"listed_puts":292,"gamma_max_distance_pct":17.96207374845744,"delta_neutral_distance_pct":5.01402884340803,"gamma_neutral_distance_pct":3.7454838068445064,"open_interest_change_1d_pct":-2.0060559222612158,"call_open_interest":209120,"put_open_interest":177618,"put_call_open_interest_ratio":0.8493592195868401,"nearest_expiration_max_pain":95,"nearest_expiration_max_pain_expiry":"2026-10-09","nearest_expiration_max_pain_distance_pct":2.117597814202631,"all_expiration_max_pain":100,"net_gamma_exposure":-13915377.412957896,"net_gamma_exposure_per_100k_open_interest":-3598140.708427384,"gamma_exposure_flip":96.51442231908308,"gamma_exposure_flip_distance_pct":3.7454838068445064,"call_wall":100,"call_wall_distance_pct":7.492208225476454,"put_wall":90,"put_wall_distance_pct":-3.257012597071192,"gamma_max_cross_direction":null,"delta_neutral_cross_direction":null,"open_interest_rank":252},"history_summary":{"first_date":"2020-12-01","last_date":"2026-10-02","session_count":1394,"trailing_window_sessions":252,"sessions_above_gamma_max_pct":2.7777777777777777,"gamma_max_cross_count":10,"delta_neutral_cross_count":27,"gamma_max_prior_sessions_closer_pct":98.4126984126984,"gamma_max_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"delta_neutral_prior_sessions_closer_pct":55.55555555555556,"delta_neutral_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_percentile_1y":23.41269841269841,"open_interest_change_1d_contracts":-7917,"open_interest_change_z_252":-0.2802926355262786,"open_interest_change_z_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_change_5_sessions_pct":4.148006517026405,"open_interest_change_21_sessions_pct":2.7348097852795776,"call_put_open_interest_changes":{"one_session":{"call_change_contracts":-3655,"put_change_contracts":-4262,"call_growth_pct":-1.7177769944777346,"put_growth_pct":-2.343303276885859,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":0.6255262824081242},"five_sessions":{"call_change_contracts":8587,"put_change_contracts":6816,"call_growth_pct":4.282088234854114,"put_growth_pct":3.990585590332666,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":0.2915026445214477},"call_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.18017902021804974,"comparison_sessions":252},"put_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.4102932428418009,"comparison_sessions":252},"call_minus_put_growth_surprise":{"z_score":0.2638293297713875,"comparison_sessions":252}}},"advanced_options":{"data_through":"2026-10-02","analysis_coverage":1,"catalyst_score":37.20292160915413,"directional_score":-20.43307086614173,"catalyst_reasons":["IV rank 100"],"features":{"symbol":"UPS","price":93.03,"totalOi":398462,"analysisCoverage":1,"avgIvPct":95,"ivRank":100,"iv52wHighPct":95,"iv52wLowPct":38.5,"frontDte":7,"frontAtmIvPct":26.14,"backAtmIvPct":35.1532,"termPremiumPp":-9.0132,"expectedMoveFrontPct":3.62,"straddleFrontPct":2.61,"straddle30dPct":8.3,"riskReversalFrontPp":2.99,"riskReversal30dPp":2.08,"butterflyFrontPp":1.37,"butterfly30dPp":0.27,"putCallOiRatio":0.834,"putCallOiFrontRatio":0.419,"putCallVolumeFrontRatio":0.643,"optionVolume":16147,"volumeOiRatio":0.040523,"netDeltaNormalized":-0.063641,"dealerDeltaNormalized":0.063362,"gexPer100kOi":-3551520.932987,"vannaPer100kOi":3713.779482,"charmPer100kOi":303375.729681,"weekendDeltaShiftPer100kOi":910127.440007,"ivSurfaceRangePp":116.2,"gammaFlipDistancePct":null,"maxPainDistancePct":7.492207,"peakCallDistancePct":2.117596,"peakPutDistancePct":2.117596},"complete_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/UPS.json?date=2026-10-02","interpretation":"Catalyst intensity ranks unusual option pricing and activity; it does not identify the event, predict direction or recommend a trade. Directional score summarizes relative positioning under documented model conventions."},"gamma_max_cross_outcomes":[{"direction":"above","event_count":14,"completed_path_count":14,"latest_cross_date":"2026-07-16","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":0.32650938913697525,"p25_return_pct":-0.2780952230138245,"p75_return_pct":0.8878033044351086,"above_zero_pct":64.28571428571429,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.31654349777194835,"median_interval_high_pct":1.0189738482303312,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":0.32791705097874324,"p25_return_pct":-1.1771384382374572,"p75_return_pct":1.9528882570141681,"above_zero_pct":57.14285714285714,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.3362166491318161,"median_interval_high_pct":2.2669198441507277,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":-0.994689335542237,"p25_return_pct":-3.08460987794919,"p75_return_pct":1.6000431377035607,"above_zero_pct":35.714285714285715,"median_interval_low_pct":-3.2274808952392875,"median_interval_high_pct":1.6192275312568283,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":-1.5264449024946392,"p25_return_pct":-5.036847943373434,"p75_return_pct":-0.6788504198328466,"above_zero_pct":21.428571428571427,"median_interval_low_pct":-5.476134101052132,"median_interval_high_pct":-0.5624929901920206,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":-0.5624929901920206}]},{"direction":"below","event_count":14,"completed_path_count":14,"latest_cross_date":"2026-07-17","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":-0.29495942757203353,"p25_return_pct":-1.5746098219390492,"p75_return_pct":0.5689745099723531,"above_zero_pct":42.857142857142854,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.6083335876464822,"median_interval_high_pct":0.6778148995689071,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":-1.109289038991118,"p25_return_pct":-2.924515687993673,"p75_return_pct":0.5599713973663822,"above_zero_pct":35.714285714285715,"median_interval_low_pct":-3.037354285993399,"median_interval_high_pct":0.6927496333997585,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":-1.0053264822318275,"p25_return_pct":-3.5457598719404904,"p75_return_pct":0.11519902627280532,"above_zero_pct":35.714285714285715,"median_interval_low_pct":-3.716665903727212,"median_interval_high_pct":0.15048727857343014,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":-2.0304517954652046,"p25_return_pct":-5.031106474886499,"p75_return_pct":-0.17913585748454974,"above_zero_pct":21.428571428571427,"median_interval_low_pct":-5.107816098610874,"median_interval_high_pct":-0.14931271012784686,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":-0.14931271012784686}]}],"missing_value_semantics":"null means unavailable; it never means zero","interpretation":"These are descriptive end-of-day model outputs. Signed GEX uses the published call-positive, put-negative convention and is not observed dealer inventory. None of the fields are live prices, predictions or investment advice."}