{"schema_version":1,"publisher":"Half on a Double","data_through":"2026-10-02","frequency":"end-of-day","methodology":"market-implied-carry-v1","generation":"market-implied-carry-analytics-20260917T000000Z","canonical_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/MSFT","markdown_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/MSFT.md","history_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/history/MSFT.csv","advanced_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/MSFT.json?date=2026-10-02","definitions_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/methodology.md","license_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/terms.md","disclaimer_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/disclaimer.md","symbol":"MSFT","page_tier":"A","units":{"prices":"USD per share","open_interest":"option contracts","gamma_exposure":"modeled dollar-delta change per USD 1 underlying move","gamma_exposure_normalized":"modeled gamma exposure per 100,000 open option contracts","distances":"percent of close","forward_outcomes":"close-to-close percent return"},"snapshot":{"close":517.530029296875,"previous_close":512.7999877929688,"delta_neutral":457.0833188681447,"gamma_neutral":442.69049403891745,"gamma_max":540.4309085899199,"total_open_interest":3564607,"previous_open_interest":3709333,"listed_contracts":2568,"listed_calls":1632,"listed_puts":1405,"gamma_max_distance_pct":4.425033910429976,"delta_neutral_distance_pct":-11.679846000599078,"gamma_neutral_distance_pct":-14.460906811462864,"open_interest_change_1d_pct":-3.901671809999264,"call_open_interest":2285301,"put_open_interest":1279306,"put_call_open_interest_ratio":0.559797593402357,"nearest_expiration_max_pain":510,"nearest_expiration_max_pain_expiry":"2026-10-05","nearest_expiration_max_pain_distance_pct":-1.4549936951688436,"all_expiration_max_pain":450,"net_gamma_exposure":348032824.2859272,"net_gamma_exposure_per_100k_open_interest":9763567.885209426,"gamma_exposure_flip":442.69049403891745,"gamma_exposure_flip_distance_pct":-14.460906811462864,"call_wall":510,"call_wall_distance_pct":-1.4549936951688436,"put_wall":500,"put_wall_distance_pct":-3.3872487207537683,"gamma_max_cross_direction":null,"delta_neutral_cross_direction":null,"open_interest_rank":24},"history_summary":{"first_date":"2020-12-01","last_date":"2026-10-02","session_count":1394,"trailing_window_sessions":252,"sessions_above_gamma_max_pct":0.7936507936507936,"gamma_max_cross_count":4,"delta_neutral_cross_count":16,"gamma_max_prior_sessions_closer_pct":16.666666666666664,"gamma_max_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"delta_neutral_prior_sessions_closer_pct":88.4920634920635,"delta_neutral_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_percentile_1y":47.22222222222222,"open_interest_change_1d_contracts":-144726,"open_interest_change_z_252":-0.9976855822224439,"open_interest_change_z_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_change_5_sessions_pct":2.0217414698703595,"open_interest_change_21_sessions_pct":-7.986111469627681,"call_put_open_interest_changes":{"one_session":{"call_change_contracts":-102001,"put_change_contracts":-42725,"call_growth_pct":-4.272647532654017,"put_growth_pct":-3.231769905546844,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":-1.040877627107173},"five_sessions":{"call_change_contracts":18788,"put_change_contracts":51851,"call_growth_pct":0.828938550098764,"put_growth_pct":4.224268914135345,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":-3.395330364036581},"call_change_surprise":{"z_score":-1.026139946068721,"comparison_sessions":252},"put_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.8499377793699232,"comparison_sessions":252},"call_minus_put_growth_surprise":{"z_score":-0.45540147167069933,"comparison_sessions":252}}},"advanced_options":{"data_through":"2026-10-02","analysis_coverage":1,"catalyst_score":34.678119026732254,"directional_score":-1.9685039370078758,"catalyst_reasons":["volume/OI 0.12"],"features":{"symbol":"MSFT","price":517.53,"totalOi":3765340,"analysisCoverage":1,"avgIvPct":51.3,"ivRank":20.8,"iv52wHighPct":112.4,"iv52wLowPct":35.26,"frontDte":3,"frontAtmIvPct":22.612,"backAtmIvPct":31.414,"termPremiumPp":-8.802,"expectedMoveFrontPct":2.05,"straddleFrontPct":1.17,"straddle30dPct":7.14,"riskReversalFrontPp":1.07,"riskReversal30dPp":2.53,"butterflyFrontPp":-5,"butterfly30dPp":-0.31,"putCallOiRatio":0.556,"putCallOiFrontRatio":1.027,"putCallVolumeFrontRatio":0.404,"optionVolume":456469,"volumeOiRatio":0.121229,"netDeltaNormalized":0.216141,"dealerDeltaNormalized":-0.208964,"gexPer100kOi":53228069.771389,"vannaPer100kOi":2232.095906,"charmPer100kOi":-3488966.94588,"weekendDeltaShiftPer100kOi":-10466900.811082,"ivSurfaceRangePp":124.3,"gammaFlipDistancePct":-2.595019,"maxPainDistancePct":-11.116264,"peakCallDistancePct":0.477267,"peakPutDistancePct":-0.488861},"complete_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/MSFT.json?date=2026-10-02","interpretation":"Catalyst intensity ranks unusual option pricing and activity; it does not identify the event, predict direction or recommend a trade. Directional score summarizes relative positioning under documented model conventions."},"gamma_max_cross_outcomes":[{"direction":"above","event_count":13,"completed_path_count":13,"latest_cross_date":"2026-08-03","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":13,"median_return_pct":-0.056509067559185056,"p25_return_pct":-0.6784874353565118,"p75_return_pct":0.1142938668971194,"above_zero_pct":46.15384615384615,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.6784874353565118,"median_interval_high_pct":0.1142938668971194,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.771484375,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":13,"median_return_pct":-0.08283107286353175,"p25_return_pct":-1.0234771318879288,"p75_return_pct":1.1186664349206898,"above_zero_pct":46.15384615384615,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.0234771318879288,"median_interval_high_pct":1.1186664349206898,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.771484375,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":13,"median_return_pct":1.2890812896956483,"p25_return_pct":-0.37037451387840203,"p75_return_pct":3.0018852173179456,"above_zero_pct":53.84615384615385,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.37037451387840203,"median_interval_high_pct":3.0018852173179456,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.771484375,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":13,"median_return_pct":1.5379066939897212,"p25_return_pct":-1.057948106879314,"p75_return_pct":4.260306287455884,"above_zero_pct":53.84615384615385,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.057948106879314,"median_interval_high_pct":4.260306287455884,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.771484375,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]},{"direction":"below","event_count":14,"completed_path_count":14,"latest_cross_date":"2026-08-04","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":0.09322176932037296,"p25_return_pct":-0.6055471255737133,"p75_return_pct":1.0792139097192843,"above_zero_pct":57.14285714285714,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.6096546089876642,"median_interval_high_pct":1.1415762884798397,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":0.7788958960454062,"p25_return_pct":-0.7254923300235583,"p75_return_pct":3.1109857133648666,"above_zero_pct":64.28571428571429,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.8195260809373606,"median_interval_high_pct":3.2456636381602344,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":2.036330747242854,"p25_return_pct":0.736336589918507,"p75_return_pct":4.242775849404018,"above_zero_pct":78.57142857142857,"median_interval_low_pct":0.7175834265823244,"median_interval_high_pct":4.4145498956664975,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0.7175834265823244},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":14,"median_return_pct":2.2626610725845375,"p25_return_pct":-1.1280232079183217,"p75_return_pct":5.237188213789517,"above_zero_pct":64.28571428571429,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.467257938702593,"median_interval_high_pct":5.528682008538666,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.2626953125,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]}],"missing_value_semantics":"null means unavailable; it never means zero","interpretation":"These are descriptive end-of-day model outputs. Signed GEX uses the published call-positive, put-negative convention and is not observed dealer inventory. None of the fields are live prices, predictions or investment advice."}