{"schema_version":1,"publisher":"Half on a Double","data_through":"2026-10-02","frequency":"end-of-day","methodology":"market-implied-carry-v1","generation":"market-implied-carry-analytics-20260917T000000Z","canonical_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/MARA","markdown_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/MARA.md","history_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/history/MARA.csv","advanced_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/MARA.json?date=2026-10-02","definitions_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/methodology.md","license_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/terms.md","disclaimer_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/disclaimer.md","symbol":"MARA","page_tier":"A","units":{"prices":"USD per share","open_interest":"option contracts","gamma_exposure":"modeled dollar-delta change per USD 1 underlying move","gamma_exposure_normalized":"modeled gamma exposure per 100,000 open option contracts","distances":"percent of close","forward_outcomes":"close-to-close percent return"},"snapshot":{"close":11.229999542236328,"previous_close":11.210000038146973,"delta_neutral":10.411359757802172,"gamma_neutral":10.45654704823275,"gamma_max":13.962590470669038,"total_open_interest":1402473,"previous_open_interest":1614207,"listed_contracts":634,"listed_calls":396,"listed_puts":345,"gamma_max_distance_pct":24.33295672146168,"delta_neutral_distance_pct":-7.289757950169365,"gamma_neutral_distance_pct":-6.88737778745763,"open_interest_change_1d_pct":-13.116905080946866,"call_open_interest":789317,"put_open_interest":613156,"put_call_open_interest_ratio":0.7768184392329064,"nearest_expiration_max_pain":12,"nearest_expiration_max_pain_expiry":"2026-10-09","nearest_expiration_max_pain_distance_pct":6.8566383717798,"all_expiration_max_pain":12,"net_gamma_exposure":12460979.758631641,"net_gamma_exposure_per_100k_open_interest":888500.5100726817,"gamma_exposure_flip":10.45654704823275,"gamma_exposure_flip_distance_pct":-6.88737778745763,"call_wall":12,"call_wall_distance_pct":6.8566383717798,"put_wall":12,"put_wall_distance_pct":6.8566383717798,"gamma_max_cross_direction":null,"delta_neutral_cross_direction":null,"open_interest_rank":75},"history_summary":{"first_date":"2020-12-01","last_date":"2026-10-02","session_count":1394,"trailing_window_sessions":252,"sessions_above_gamma_max_pct":7.142857142857142,"gamma_max_cross_count":24,"delta_neutral_cross_count":22,"gamma_max_prior_sessions_closer_pct":92.06349206349206,"gamma_max_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"delta_neutral_prior_sessions_closer_pct":38.88888888888889,"delta_neutral_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_percentile_1y":1.984126984126984,"open_interest_change_1d_contracts":-211734,"open_interest_change_z_252":-1.3826024071995198,"open_interest_change_z_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_change_5_sessions_pct":3.4055551787088842,"open_interest_change_21_sessions_pct":-23.803322402091496,"call_put_open_interest_changes":{"one_session":{"call_change_contracts":-163995,"put_change_contracts":-47739,"call_growth_pct":-17.202657681850223,"put_growth_pct":-7.223386468349738,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":-9.979271213500486},"five_sessions":{"call_change_contracts":26565,"put_change_contracts":19624,"call_growth_pct":3.48278339486491,"put_growth_pct":3.3063086741742653,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":0.17647472069064474},"call_change_surprise":{"z_score":-1.5099478958656973,"comparison_sessions":252},"put_change_surprise":{"z_score":-1.0053491853320549,"comparison_sessions":252},"call_minus_put_growth_surprise":{"z_score":-2.1131491728581318,"comparison_sessions":252}}},"advanced_options":{"data_through":"2026-10-02","analysis_coverage":1,"catalyst_score":51.16810957938905,"directional_score":7.559055118110235,"catalyst_reasons":["volume/OI 0.22","7d expected move +10.8%"],"features":{"symbol":"MARA","price":11.23,"totalOi":1579015,"analysisCoverage":1,"avgIvPct":214,"ivRank":25.4,"iv52wHighPct":547.3,"iv52wLowPct":100.7,"frontDte":7,"frontAtmIvPct":77.698,"backAtmIvPct":82.9429,"termPremiumPp":-5.2449,"expectedMoveFrontPct":10.76,"straddleFrontPct":8.01,"straddle30dPct":16.92,"riskReversalFrontPp":-4.72,"riskReversal30dPp":-2.93,"butterflyFrontPp":3.99,"butterfly30dPp":0.68,"putCallOiRatio":0.705,"putCallOiFrontRatio":0.758,"putCallVolumeFrontRatio":0.088,"optionVolume":352747,"volumeOiRatio":0.223397,"netDeltaNormalized":0.054357,"dealerDeltaNormalized":-0.054184,"gexPer100kOi":209123.022264,"vannaPer100kOi":3927.511772,"charmPer100kOi":73367.067444,"weekendDeltaShiftPer100kOi":220101.202332,"ivSurfaceRangePp":52.7,"gammaFlipDistancePct":15.405165,"maxPainDistancePct":2.404274,"peakCallDistancePct":6.856634,"peakPutDistancePct":2.404274},"complete_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/MARA.json?date=2026-10-02","interpretation":"Catalyst intensity ranks unusual option pricing and activity; it does not identify the event, predict direction or recommend a trade. Directional score summarizes relative positioning under documented model conventions."},"gamma_max_cross_outcomes":[{"direction":"above","event_count":39,"completed_path_count":38,"latest_cross_date":"2026-09-22","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":39,"median_return_pct":1.0491278275112537,"p25_return_pct":-2.695957019909173,"p75_return_pct":4.0435667564673095,"above_zero_pct":56.41025641025641,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.3127827410210346,"median_interval_high_pct":2.887866493028368,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.67480859020725,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":39,"median_return_pct":3.025328726713017,"p25_return_pct":-8.087656549687704,"p75_return_pct":9.903417787709357,"above_zero_pct":58.97435897435898,"median_interval_low_pct":-4.270275219066722,"median_interval_high_pct":8.447096830733635,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.67480859020725,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":39,"median_return_pct":1.165881983923489,"p25_return_pct":-10.681705788766205,"p75_return_pct":12.187175013781482,"above_zero_pct":51.28205128205128,"median_interval_low_pct":-5.210255931850238,"median_interval_high_pct":6.702809138900645,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.67480859020725,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":38,"median_return_pct":1.0035488162705608,"p25_return_pct":-12.498390948374265,"p75_return_pct":10.088840876466556,"above_zero_pct":57.89473684210527,"median_interval_low_pct":-8.355747549115689,"median_interval_high_pct":5.147759519879069,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":92.70486114837695,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]},{"direction":"below","event_count":39,"completed_path_count":38,"latest_cross_date":"2026-09-23","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":39,"median_return_pct":-1.2064032358405807,"p25_return_pct":-5.168481518975298,"p75_return_pct":1.9438061067158285,"above_zero_pct":41.02564102564102,"median_interval_low_pct":-3.429556949205903,"median_interval_high_pct":0.5917208565237031,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.67480859020725,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":39,"median_return_pct":-0.2234172389631972,"p25_return_pct":-5.924467154986097,"p75_return_pct":5.939242456562377,"above_zero_pct":48.717948717948715,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.172907538263157,"median_interval_high_pct":3.7850113441039612,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.67480859020725,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":39,"median_return_pct":0.278367871307017,"p25_return_pct":-5.737920139215458,"p75_return_pct":9.639327524063567,"above_zero_pct":51.28205128205128,"median_interval_low_pct":-5.239788104751053,"median_interval_high_pct":6.207559297773835,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.67480859020725,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":38,"median_return_pct":2.148244106324204,"p25_return_pct":-9.834676371172977,"p75_return_pct":21.24024233805295,"above_zero_pct":55.26315789473685,"median_interval_low_pct":-4.924620909659627,"median_interval_high_pct":8.281392191317781,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":92.70486114837695,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]}],"missing_value_semantics":"null means unavailable; it never means zero","interpretation":"These are descriptive end-of-day model outputs. Signed GEX uses the published call-positive, put-negative convention and is not observed dealer inventory. None of the fields are live prices, predictions or investment advice."}