{"schema_version":1,"publisher":"Half on a Double","data_through":"2026-10-02","frequency":"end-of-day","methodology":"market-implied-carry-v1","generation":"market-implied-carry-analytics-20260917T000000Z","canonical_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/M","markdown_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/M.md","history_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/history/M.csv","advanced_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/M.json?date=2026-10-02","definitions_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/methodology.md","license_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/terms.md","disclaimer_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/disclaimer.md","symbol":"M","page_tier":"A","units":{"prices":"USD per share","open_interest":"option contracts","gamma_exposure":"modeled dollar-delta change per USD 1 underlying move","gamma_exposure_normalized":"modeled gamma exposure per 100,000 open option contracts","distances":"percent of close","forward_outcomes":"close-to-close percent return"},"snapshot":{"close":22.729999542236328,"previous_close":22.760000228881836,"delta_neutral":20.700881044848643,"gamma_neutral":18.02116547583408,"gamma_max":23.982306732830402,"total_open_interest":127120,"previous_open_interest":133120,"listed_contracts":390,"listed_calls":238,"listed_puts":199,"gamma_max_distance_pct":5.509490610710604,"delta_neutral_distance_pct":-8.927050322272233,"gamma_neutral_distance_pct":-20.716384343309848,"open_interest_change_1d_pct":-4.507211538461538,"call_open_interest":72365,"put_open_interest":54755,"put_call_open_interest_ratio":0.756650314378498,"nearest_expiration_max_pain":22.5,"nearest_expiration_max_pain_expiry":"2026-10-09","nearest_expiration_max_pain_distance_pct":-1.011876581030935,"all_expiration_max_pain":22,"net_gamma_exposure":6500420.507407046,"net_gamma_exposure_per_100k_open_interest":5113609.587324611,"gamma_exposure_flip":18.02116547583408,"gamma_exposure_flip_distance_pct":-20.716384343309848,"call_wall":23,"call_wall_distance_pct":1.1878594949461554,"put_wall":22,"put_wall_distance_pct":-3.2116126570080255,"gamma_max_cross_direction":null,"delta_neutral_cross_direction":null,"open_interest_rank":559},"history_summary":{"first_date":"2020-12-01","last_date":"2026-10-02","session_count":1394,"trailing_window_sessions":252,"sessions_above_gamma_max_pct":3.968253968253968,"gamma_max_cross_count":14,"delta_neutral_cross_count":14,"gamma_max_prior_sessions_closer_pct":30.952380952380953,"gamma_max_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"delta_neutral_prior_sessions_closer_pct":72.61904761904762,"delta_neutral_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_percentile_1y":13.492063492063492,"open_interest_change_1d_contracts":-6000,"open_interest_change_z_252":-0.3700613437550789,"open_interest_change_z_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_change_5_sessions_pct":3.9555784532600606,"open_interest_change_21_sessions_pct":-21.81512894476256,"call_put_open_interest_changes":{"one_session":{"call_change_contracts":-3299,"put_change_contracts":-2701,"call_growth_pct":-4.3600655529710295,"put_growth_pct":-4.70098858256753,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":0.34092302959650045},"five_sessions":{"call_change_contracts":2512,"put_change_contracts":2325,"call_growth_pct":3.596123287475126,"put_growth_pct":4.434484074003433,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":-0.8383607865283071},"call_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.41527009456764996,"comparison_sessions":252},"put_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.2848506072189407,"comparison_sessions":252},"call_minus_put_growth_surprise":{"z_score":0.026088883433788478,"comparison_sessions":252}}},"advanced_options":{"data_through":"2026-10-02","analysis_coverage":1,"catalyst_score":51.80883467034268,"directional_score":8.267716535433069,"catalyst_reasons":["smile convexity 28.1 pp"],"features":{"symbol":"M","price":22.73,"totalOi":136029,"analysisCoverage":1,"avgIvPct":210.8,"ivRank":83.3,"iv52wHighPct":240,"iv52wLowPct":65.1,"frontDte":7,"frontAtmIvPct":37.6214,"backAtmIvPct":42.6041,"termPremiumPp":-4.9827,"expectedMoveFrontPct":5.21,"straddleFrontPct":4.31,"straddle30dPct":8.82,"riskReversalFrontPp":-10.96,"riskReversal30dPp":-0.24,"butterflyFrontPp":28.1,"butterfly30dPp":-1.02,"putCallOiRatio":0.78,"putCallOiFrontRatio":0.376,"putCallVolumeFrontRatio":0.413,"optionVolume":5150,"volumeOiRatio":0.03786,"netDeltaNormalized":0.162976,"dealerDeltaNormalized":-0.158488,"gexPer100kOi":1439487.138772,"vannaPer100kOi":2281.131229,"charmPer100kOi":-159941.630094,"weekendDeltaShiftPer100kOi":-479825.625418,"ivSurfaceRangePp":119.4,"gammaFlipDistancePct":-0.615926,"maxPainDistancePct":-3.211615,"peakCallDistancePct":1.187857,"peakPutDistancePct":-7.611087},"complete_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/M.json?date=2026-10-02","interpretation":"Catalyst intensity ranks unusual option pricing and activity; it does not identify the event, predict direction or recommend a trade. Directional score summarizes relative positioning under documented model conventions."},"gamma_max_cross_outcomes":[{"direction":"above","event_count":34,"completed_path_count":34,"latest_cross_date":"2026-06-22","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":34,"median_return_pct":0.03632692980347629,"p25_return_pct":-2.9105027629487856,"p75_return_pct":2.157506583618302,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.780975082321734,"median_interval_high_pct":1.2165419258590493,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.23873270861804,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":34,"median_return_pct":0.1982942959387779,"p25_return_pct":-3.62358694758686,"p75_return_pct":4.069452876221264,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.725732157571903,"median_interval_high_pct":2.1596854023104406,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.23873270861804,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":34,"median_return_pct":-0.45890805976132043,"p25_return_pct":-3.288426718421747,"p75_return_pct":3.489754513978788,"above_zero_pct":44.11764705882353,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.421465261944322,"median_interval_high_pct":1.3787516410855405,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.23873270861804,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":34,"median_return_pct":-0.18342332682946827,"p25_return_pct":-4.021592910805181,"p75_return_pct":4.542310527237864,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.7621898469618156,"median_interval_high_pct":3.293582643972859,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":94.23873270861804,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]},{"direction":"below","event_count":30,"completed_path_count":30,"latest_cross_date":"2026-06-23","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":30,"median_return_pct":0.49968882221166355,"p25_return_pct":-0.40794764127236316,"p75_return_pct":2.8680860329647673,"above_zero_pct":66.66666666666666,"median_interval_low_pct":0.18381896947601284,"median_interval_high_pct":2.0572409298580396,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1262853294611,"confidence_floor_pct":0.18381896947601284},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":30,"median_return_pct":0.48990851634252985,"p25_return_pct":-0.9918379166164282,"p75_return_pct":3.829856919072283,"above_zero_pct":63.33333333333333,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.42289902971549553,"median_interval_high_pct":2.1650025077895485,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1262853294611,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":30,"median_return_pct":1.7091290774685297,"p25_return_pct":-2.296147927469155,"p75_return_pct":4.046430190002903,"above_zero_pct":63.33333333333333,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.15432451932717584,"median_interval_high_pct":2.56410702280363,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1262853294611,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":30,"median_return_pct":0.42533583026986843,"p25_return_pct":-4.701961508193197,"p75_return_pct":7.429603793449774,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-3.846150319251662,"median_interval_high_pct":3.7606830547227688,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1262853294611,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]}],"missing_value_semantics":"null means unavailable; it never means zero","interpretation":"These are descriptive end-of-day model outputs. Signed GEX uses the published call-positive, put-negative convention and is not observed dealer inventory. None of the fields are live prices, predictions or investment advice."}