{"schema_version":1,"publisher":"Half on a Double","data_through":"2026-10-02","frequency":"end-of-day","methodology":"market-implied-carry-v1","generation":"market-implied-carry-analytics-20260917T000000Z","canonical_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/ETSY","markdown_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/ETSY.md","history_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/history/ETSY.csv","advanced_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/ETSY.json?date=2026-10-02","definitions_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/methodology.md","license_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/terms.md","disclaimer_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/disclaimer.md","symbol":"ETSY","page_tier":"A","units":{"prices":"USD per share","open_interest":"option contracts","gamma_exposure":"modeled dollar-delta change per USD 1 underlying move","gamma_exposure_normalized":"modeled gamma exposure per 100,000 open option contracts","distances":"percent of close","forward_outcomes":"close-to-close percent return"},"snapshot":{"close":72.7699966430664,"previous_close":72.83999633789062,"delta_neutral":63.66306969143412,"gamma_neutral":49.46967333709034,"gamma_max":85.47534907772427,"total_open_interest":164222,"previous_open_interest":169089,"listed_contracts":535,"listed_calls":320,"listed_puts":270,"gamma_max_distance_pct":17.459602886856043,"delta_neutral_distance_pct":-12.514672765894657,"gamma_neutral_distance_pct":-32.019134781966684,"open_interest_change_1d_pct":-2.8783658310120708,"call_open_interest":119754,"put_open_interest":44468,"put_call_open_interest_ratio":0.3713278888387862,"nearest_expiration_max_pain":71,"nearest_expiration_max_pain_expiry":"2026-10-09","nearest_expiration_max_pain_distance_pct":-2.432316510536837,"all_expiration_max_pain":65,"net_gamma_exposure":6784997.64271739,"net_gamma_exposure_per_100k_open_interest":4131600.907745241,"gamma_exposure_flip":49.46967333709034,"gamma_exposure_flip_distance_pct":-32.019134781966684,"call_wall":95,"call_wall_distance_pct":30.54830889435212,"put_wall":72.5,"put_wall_distance_pct":-0.3710274227312772,"gamma_max_cross_direction":null,"delta_neutral_cross_direction":null,"open_interest_rank":464},"history_summary":{"first_date":"2020-12-01","last_date":"2026-10-02","session_count":1394,"trailing_window_sessions":252,"sessions_above_gamma_max_pct":1.984126984126984,"gamma_max_cross_count":6,"delta_neutral_cross_count":18,"gamma_max_prior_sessions_closer_pct":65.07936507936508,"gamma_max_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"delta_neutral_prior_sessions_closer_pct":69.44444444444444,"delta_neutral_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_percentile_1y":30.952380952380953,"open_interest_change_1d_contracts":-4867,"open_interest_change_z_252":-0.251602032056443,"open_interest_change_z_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_change_5_sessions_pct":1.8607882298941831,"open_interest_change_21_sessions_pct":-22.038130684947117,"call_put_open_interest_changes":{"one_session":{"call_change_contracts":-4158,"put_change_contracts":-709,"call_growth_pct":-3.3556072051133063,"put_growth_pct":-1.5693826504637316,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":-1.7862245546495747},"five_sessions":{"call_change_contracts":1184,"put_change_contracts":1816,"call_growth_pct":0.9985662477861179,"put_growth_pct":4.257713589046235,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":-3.2591473412601166},"call_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.40676150095296787,"comparison_sessions":252},"put_change_surprise":{"z_score":-0.040844501031450146,"comparison_sessions":252},"call_minus_put_growth_surprise":{"z_score":-0.3887438473657645,"comparison_sessions":252}}},"advanced_options":{"data_through":"2026-10-02","analysis_coverage":1,"catalyst_score":45.92639100021762,"directional_score":20.15748031496063,"catalyst_reasons":["smile convexity 20.1 pp","IV rank 92"],"features":{"symbol":"ETSY","price":72.77,"totalOi":170480,"analysisCoverage":1,"avgIvPct":170.5,"ivRank":92.3,"iv52wHighPct":179.3,"iv52wLowPct":65.2,"frontDte":7,"frontAtmIvPct":51.1247,"backAtmIvPct":57.0966,"termPremiumPp":-5.9719,"expectedMoveFrontPct":7.08,"straddleFrontPct":4.87,"straddle30dPct":7.28,"riskReversalFrontPp":-2.77,"riskReversal30dPp":0.36,"butterflyFrontPp":20.07,"butterfly30dPp":0.51,"putCallOiRatio":0.365,"putCallOiFrontRatio":0.855,"putCallVolumeFrontRatio":2.714,"optionVolume":2232,"volumeOiRatio":0.013092,"netDeltaNormalized":0.207342,"dealerDeltaNormalized":-0.205125,"gexPer100kOi":4024348.48076,"vannaPer100kOi":2328.132332,"charmPer100kOi":409409.314876,"weekendDeltaShiftPer100kOi":1228228.531206,"ivSurfaceRangePp":113.2,"gammaFlipDistancePct":-18.634052,"maxPainDistancePct":-10.677477,"peakCallDistancePct":5.812835,"peakPutDistancePct":-9.303284},"complete_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/ETSY.json?date=2026-10-02","interpretation":"Catalyst intensity ranks unusual option pricing and activity; it does not identify the event, predict direction or recommend a trade. Directional score summarizes relative positioning under documented model conventions."},"gamma_max_cross_outcomes":[{"direction":"above","event_count":19,"completed_path_count":19,"latest_cross_date":"2026-07-15","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":19,"median_return_pct":-0.4986260596426817,"p25_return_pct":-2.5269702806282712,"p75_return_pct":1.496455390408702,"above_zero_pct":36.84210526315789,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.5145184026622136,"median_interval_high_pct":0.91640503960293,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":93.6431884765625,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":19,"median_return_pct":-1.0908037391733072,"p25_return_pct":-2.9184380928771017,"p75_return_pct":2.801239928363719,"above_zero_pct":42.10526315789473,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.4213014676271016,"median_interval_high_pct":1.7263268414155153,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":93.6431884765625,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":19,"median_return_pct":-0.36241220320308853,"p25_return_pct":-5.986428378786119,"p75_return_pct":3.1163541383422255,"above_zero_pct":36.84210526315789,"median_interval_low_pct":-5.838036792690227,"median_interval_high_pct":2.359177141941138,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":93.6431884765625,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":19,"median_return_pct":-0.695383872786548,"p25_return_pct":-5.514325634878242,"p75_return_pct":3.8378768734232627,"above_zero_pct":36.84210526315789,"median_interval_low_pct":-5.286511796313009,"median_interval_high_pct":2.911613856727402,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":93.6431884765625,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]},{"direction":"below","event_count":18,"completed_path_count":18,"latest_cross_date":"2026-07-16","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":18,"median_return_pct":-0.3720811140160374,"p25_return_pct":-2.2715332782116766,"p75_return_pct":1.4891362724043955,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.0067842127913127,"median_interval_high_pct":1.2910805929641223,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.374755859375,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":18,"median_return_pct":-2.251773154873804,"p25_return_pct":-3.798329487562771,"p75_return_pct":2.438388463397445,"above_zero_pct":33.33333333333333,"median_interval_low_pct":-3.4900548495529593,"median_interval_high_pct":0.6272199607143314,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.374755859375,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":18,"median_return_pct":-3.924636561484035,"p25_return_pct":-8.80470771736817,"p75_return_pct":2.5912381228835937,"above_zero_pct":38.88888888888889,"median_interval_low_pct":-8.444843098326139,"median_interval_high_pct":2.3806103102210763,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.374755859375,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":18,"median_return_pct":-2.4858017729732618,"p25_return_pct":-7.749940624392612,"p75_return_pct":0.6925988467115589,"above_zero_pct":27.77777777777778,"median_interval_low_pct":-7.635276022646586,"median_interval_high_pct":-0.39530644200348464,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.374755859375,"confidence_floor_pct":-0.39530644200348464}]}],"missing_value_semantics":"null means unavailable; it never means zero","interpretation":"These are descriptive end-of-day model outputs. Signed GEX uses the published call-positive, put-negative convention and is not observed dealer inventory. None of the fields are live prices, predictions or investment advice."}