· wrinkle brain plays · 3 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on May 8, 2023. In the style of a maple syrup obsessed canadian.

Plays for Execution on May 8, 2023. In the style of a maple syrup obsessed canadian.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • CCL 06/16 10P for $0.65 or less
  • NIO 06/16 7.5P for $0.40 or less
  • DKNG 06/16 22.5P for $0.70 or less
  • W 06/16 40P for $3.70 or less
  • CRM 06/16 195P for $7.30 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • QQQ 06/16 322P for $7.40 or less
  • TSLA 06/16 165P for $7.50 or less
  • COIN 06/16 55P for $5.20 or less
  • TSM 06/16 85C for $3.00 or less
  • CVNA 06/16 7.5P for $0.95 or less

🍁 Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Like a Maple Syrup Wonderland 🍁

When we’re seeking out the tastiest financial crayons, technical analysis and indicator-based trading are like sniffing out the best maple syrup. Grab a pancake and dig into this analysis where option open interest rules, eh?

Much like a plate stacked high with flapjacks, we’ll be calculating portfolio-level greeks (Delta and Gamma) to simulate changes at various price points. Our goal? Finding those flavourful price levels where gamma is maxed out and delta is as close to zero as a hockey game in overtime.

For certain tickers, the underlying price becomes as jumpy as a moose on coffee, reacting off delta neutral or gamma max (or both!). We use these past reactions like a GPS to find perfect trading signals.

Our delicious plays and target entry prices are calculated with a binomial option pricing model, covering the size and duration of the reactions. Hold onto your toques; we see the best plays benefiting from not only the directional move but also the increase in IV.

🍁 Notes - Sweet Maple Syrup for Your Brilliant Brain 🍁

  • If the price has skated past the entry price, be careful! Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
  • Look to sell half your position on a double, and free skate the rest to exit at your discretion.
  • I’m willing to risk up to 1% of my toonies and loonies on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I’ll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% and dollar cost average in.
  • Keep in mind, these trades were calculated before the market opened, so base your decisions on older info like an antique maple syrup can.

🍁 FAQ - Pass the Maple Syrup, Won’t You? 🍁

  • Are these mostly puts? Are you a gay (bear)? 🐻
    • Nah, just poutine it out there that these companies might be a bit overextended after some recent run-ups. We’re simply heading toward or away from an important price level, like a proper Canadian mean reversion.
  • Are you snowshoeing into all these plays? 🎿
    • Nope. With fewer plays in the usual WSB morning talks, I’ve got my Timmies in hand and widened my search to help apes find more gain porn. Choose your faves like picking your favourite maple trees.
  • Yesterday’s play has switched tickers. What’s up with that, eh? 🔄
    • Swap the old play for the new one, buddy. The previous play isn’t valid anymore, so no need to go chasing uncharted trails.
  • Where are the crayons? I see words, not colours. 🖍️
    • Just click those maple syrup-y links above.
  • Did you take this thesis back to the sugar shack? 🍁
    • Oh, for sure! Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76) with an expected 63% win rate (7% margin of error).
  • How’s the historical performance, eh? 🏒
    • The realized Sharpe Ratio sits at 1.82 with a 66% win rate. Based on past game performance, there’s a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 73% (Stats as of 2023-04-30). And that, my friends, is tastier than Aunt Jemima!
Use of HalfOnADouble's research is at your own risk. In no event should HalfOnADouble or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this report. You further agree to conduct your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision concerning the transaction of any securities covered herein. You should assume that as of the publication date of any content, HalfOnADouble (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a position in all stocks (and/or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of any stock covered herein moves as predicted. Following the publication of any report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered herein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation, conclusions, or opinions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. HalfOnADouble is not registered as an investment advisor in the United States or have similar registration in any other jurisdiction. To the best of our ability and belief, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer. However, such information is presented "as is," without warranty of any kind - whether express or implied. HalfOnADouble makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and HalfOnADouble does not undertake to update or supplement this report or any of the information contained herein.
Back to Blog