ยท wrinkle brain plays ยท 4 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on May 4, 2023. In the style of Audtin Powers

Plays for Execution on May 4, 2023. In the style of Audtin Powers

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • LABU 06/16 6P for $0.60 or less
  • WPM 06/16 50P for $1.70 or less
  • UVIX 06/16 12P for $2.15 or less
  • SDS 06/16 40P for $1.25 or less
  • ASND 06/16 90P for $3.20 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • XOM 06/16 110C for $3.10 or less
  • XBI 06/16 83P for $2.90 or less
  • DAL 06/16 33P for $0.85 or less
  • SBUX 06/16 105C for $2.50 or less
  • ABNB 06/16 115P for $5.90 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Are Groovier Than A โ€™60s Dance Party ๐Ÿ•บโœจ๐ŸŽ‰

Technical analysis and indicator-based shenanigans are all about using the ghosts of stock prices past to predict their present parties. ๐ŸŒˆ๐Ÿ‘ป

Weโ€™re looking at the oh-so-hip option open interest, baby. Using that, we can find the scene with the grooviest portfolio-level greeks โ€“ specifically Delta and Gamma. Once weโ€™ve got those, itโ€™s time to do the time warp and simulate those greeks at different price point gig locations. ๐Ÿ’ƒ๐ŸŽถ๐Ÿ’น

For some groovy tickers, the underlying prices react like a hippie at a Woodstock love-in off of delta neutral, gamma max, or sometimes both.

Weโ€™re using past reactions to these mind-blowing levels to navigate the crazy trade signals journey. Far out, man! โ˜ฎ๏ธ๐Ÿš€

The plays and totally fab target entry prices are calculated with a rockinโ€™ binomial option pricing model. This reflects the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. Loads of these plays are profitable by the moves in stock. The grooviest plays benefit from the directional move AND the increase in IV. ๐ŸŽฏ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Notes - A Spoonful of Wisdom to Zap Your Brain ๐Ÿ„๐Ÿง 

  • If the price has split like an Austin Powers double, beware! Something has gone all wibbly-wobbly between these playsโ€™ generation and market open. ๐Ÿ˜ฑ๐Ÿ’”
  • Sell half your position on a double, baby, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. ๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ’ฐ
  • I risk up to a groovy 1% of my total capital on trades I take. If my mojoโ€™s not feelinโ€™ it, I only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital and dollar cost average in. ๐Ÿ’ธ๐ŸŽฒ
  • These trades were calculated before the market opened, so theyโ€™re based on yesterdayโ€™s juicy gossip. Bear that in mind when deciding to crash later into the party. New dances on the floor might invalidate our fabulicious thesis. ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ‘ฃ

FAQ - Inquiring minds want to know ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ”ฎ

  • These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? ๐ŸŒˆ๐Ÿป
    • No, darling. It just so happens that the companies have been groovy enough to have a recent run-up which implies theyโ€™re overextended. These trades are simply boogying back either toward or away from an important price level. ๐Ÿ“‰
  • Are you entering all these plays? ๐Ÿค”
    • No, man. There have been slim pickings in the WSB morning talks, so I cracked open my psychedelic toolbox to help point out more plays with edge. Check out this curated lineup of plays, choose the ones that flip your switch, and get yourself some sweet gain porn. ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿฟ
  • You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? ๐Ÿ”„
    • The new play should take the stage instead of the old one. The old play is probably out of tune now. If you havenโ€™t joined in, donโ€™t chase the melody. Remember that the fresher playโ€™s got the latest moves. ๐Ÿ•บ
  • Where are the crayons? I only see words. ๐Ÿ–๏ธ๐Ÿคท
    • Click the trippy links above, my friend! ๐Ÿ”—โœŒ๏ธ
  • Have you back-tested this groovy gig? ๐Ÿงช
    • Yeah, baby! Results show a moderately cool Sharpe Ratio (1.76) with a 63% win rate on this wild ride (with a 7% margin of error). ๐ŸŒŸ
  • Whatโ€™s the historical performance been like? ๐Ÿ“…
    • The realized Sharpe Ratioโ€™s a smooth 1.82 with a wicked 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, thereโ€™s a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 73%. (Stats as of 2023-04-30) ๐Ÿ†๐ŸŽŠ
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