ยท wrinkle brain plays ยท 4 min read
Wrinkle Brain Plays
Plays for Execution on May 4, 2023. In the style of Audtin Powers
Tickers of Interest - TL;DR
Gamma Max Cross
- LABU 06/16 6P for $0.60 or less
- WPM 06/16 50P for $1.70 or less
- UVIX 06/16 12P for $2.15 or less
- SDS 06/16 40P for $1.25 or less
- ASND 06/16 90P for $3.20 or less
Delta Neutral Cross
- XOM 06/16 110C for $3.10 or less
- XBI 06/16 83P for $2.90 or less
- DAL 06/16 33P for $0.85 or less
- SBUX 06/16 105C for $2.50 or less
- ABNB 06/16 115P for $5.90 or less
Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Are Groovier Than A โ60s Dance Party ๐บโจ๐
Technical analysis and indicator-based shenanigans are all about using the ghosts of stock prices past to predict their present parties. ๐๐ป
Weโre looking at the oh-so-hip option open interest, baby. Using that, we can find the scene with the grooviest portfolio-level greeks โ specifically Delta and Gamma. Once weโve got those, itโs time to do the time warp and simulate those greeks at different price point gig locations. ๐๐ถ๐น
For some groovy tickers, the underlying prices react like a hippie at a Woodstock love-in off of delta neutral, gamma max, or sometimes both.
Weโre using past reactions to these mind-blowing levels to navigate the crazy trade signals journey. Far out, man! โฎ๏ธ๐
The plays and totally fab target entry prices are calculated with a rockinโ binomial option pricing model. This reflects the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. Loads of these plays are profitable by the moves in stock. The grooviest plays benefit from the directional move AND the increase in IV. ๐ฏ๐
Notes - A Spoonful of Wisdom to Zap Your Brain ๐๐ง
- If the price has split like an Austin Powers double, beware! Something has gone all wibbly-wobbly between these playsโ generation and market open. ๐ฑ๐
- Sell half your position on a double, baby, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. ๐๐ฐ
- I risk up to a groovy 1% of my total capital on trades I take. If my mojoโs not feelinโ it, I only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital and dollar cost average in. ๐ธ๐ฒ
- These trades were calculated before the market opened, so theyโre based on yesterdayโs juicy gossip. Bear that in mind when deciding to crash later into the party. New dances on the floor might invalidate our fabulicious thesis. ๐ฅ๐ฃ
FAQ - Inquiring minds want to know ๐๐ฎ
- These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? ๐๐ป
- No, darling. It just so happens that the companies have been groovy enough to have a recent run-up which implies theyโre overextended. These trades are simply boogying back either toward or away from an important price level. ๐
- Are you entering all these plays? ๐ค
- No, man. There have been slim pickings in the WSB morning talks, so I cracked open my psychedelic toolbox to help point out more plays with edge. Check out this curated lineup of plays, choose the ones that flip your switch, and get yourself some sweet gain porn. ๐๐ฟ
- You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? ๐
- The new play should take the stage instead of the old one. The old play is probably out of tune now. If you havenโt joined in, donโt chase the melody. Remember that the fresher playโs got the latest moves. ๐บ
- Where are the crayons? I only see words. ๐๏ธ๐คท
- Click the trippy links above, my friend! ๐โ๏ธ
- Have you back-tested this groovy gig? ๐งช
- Yeah, baby! Results show a moderately cool Sharpe Ratio (1.76) with a 63% win rate on this wild ride (with a 7% margin of error). ๐
- Whatโs the historical performance been like? ๐
- The realized Sharpe Ratioโs a smooth 1.82 with a wicked 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, thereโs a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 73%. (Stats as of 2023-04-30) ๐๐