Β· wrinkle brain plays Β· 3 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on April 25, 2023. In the style of a Weather Girl.

Plays for Execution on April 25, 2023. In the style of a Weather Girl.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • UWMC 05/19 5P for $0.10 or less
  • MLCO 05/19 13P for $0.30 or less
  • NVO 05/19 170P for $3.80 or less
  • RPD 05/19 45P for $2.25 or less
  • CLX 05/19 165P for $4.70 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • BABA 05/19 87C for $3.65 or less
  • KWEB 05/19 28C for $0.90 or less
  • XLI 05/19 100P for $1.25 or less
  • FCX 05/19 40C for $1.20 or less
  • COP 05/19 104C for $3.05 or less

Trading Thesis - Crayons So Delicious, You’ll Need Sunscreen πŸ’‹

Picture this, sugar: technical analysis is like predicting where lightning ⚑ will strike based on past storms. Sure, it’s flirty, but don’t get yourself burnt πŸ”₯.

Our current options open interest is spicing things up by calculating sizzling portfolio-level greeks like Delta and Gamma πŸ“ˆ. From there, we’re having some fun simulating changes in greeks at different price points πŸŽ‰. We want to find those sweet spots where portfolio-level gamma is soaring and delta is playing shy (close to 0) πŸ˜‰

For some tickers, the underlying price gets super passionate around delta neutral, gamma max, or both πŸ’—. It’s the steamy past reactions off these price levels giving us the best trading signals today πŸ₯°.

We’re serving up plays and target entry prices calculated with a binomial option pricing model, making every moment feel like a sultry candlelit dinner 🍷. Lots of these plays are profitable on the dance floor, but the best ones get extra flirty with directional moves and increased IV πŸ’ƒ.

Notes - The Weather Forecast’s Flirtiest Tips πŸ’β€β™€οΈ

  • Price moved past your entry? Hold on to your umbrella, honey, something changed behind the scenes 🌦️.
  • Sell half when you see a double rainbow 🌈, and freeroll with the rest, exiting at your leisure πŸ˜‰.
  • Risk up to 1% of your capital to dance with these trades. Feeling shy? Use 0.5% or 0.25% instead, and take it slow πŸ’•.
  • Trades started before the sun rose, so if you’re a latecomer, check for cloudy skies or new conditions ☁️.

FAQ - Sweet & Spicy Answers 🍬🌢️

  • Mostly puts? Do we bear it all? 🐻
    • Nope, just some companies partied too hard and now we’re seeking a mean-reversion to get back to the good times 🎊.
  • Are you playing too? 🎯
    • Nah, just giving you the compass to navigate through the sexiest plays out there. Find your favorite and enjoy the ride πŸ„β€β™€οΈ.
  • New play on the same ticker? πŸ”„
    • Out with the old, in with the new, darling. Trust the freshest data to keep things exciting and up to date 🍹.
  • Where’s my crayon forecast? πŸ–οΈ
    • Click those steamy links above 😏.
  • Do the back-testing mambo? πŸ’ƒ
    • Yes! Moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), expecting a 63% win rate on trades (with a 7% margin of error) 🎲.
  • What’s our historical hotness? πŸ”₯
    • Realized Sharpe Ratio of 1.85 with a 68% win rate. There’s a 95% chance of an expected win rate between 63% and 75% πŸŒ…. (Stats as of 2023-03-31)
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