· wrinkle brain plays · 3 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on April 18, 2023. In the style of Elmo.

Plays for Execution on April 18, 2023. In the style of Elmo.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • NOG 05/19 34P for $1.45 or less
  • PXD 05/19 225P for $6.05 or less
  • EWU 05/19 33P for $0.35 or less
  • TAN 05/19 78P for $2.25 or less
  • AVDL 05/19 10P for $1.15 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • FXI 05/19 30C for $0.55 or less
  • TLT 05/19 104C for $2.00 or less
  • XBI 05/19 83C for $1.70 or less
  • BA 05/19 205C for $7.65 or less
  • CLF 05/19 18C for $0.75 or less

Jokin’ Thesis - Why Elmo’s Crayons Taste Yummier 🌈

Techy analysis and those blinky indicator thingies usually look at past prices to guess important prices for today. 🤓

This smarty-talk is based on current option open interests. With those, it figures out big Greek stuff—like Delta and Gamma 💥. More excitingly, once we got our big Greek team all set, now we can imagine what’ll happen at different prices. Then, we find out where our Greek pals are the strongest and closest to zero. 🎉

For some tickers, the prices go zoomy with Delta-neutral, Gamma-max, or even both. 🚀

How prices moved in the past guides our trading signals for today. 🚦

Our plays and target prices are calculated with a fancy-schmancy model that shows how big and long the reactions from Gamma-max or Delta-neutral will be. Many of these plays win with just the stock moving. The bestest plays score from the direction AND the increase in IV. 🎯

Notes - Give your brain a tickle 🧠

  • If the price zipped past the entry price, watch out! 🛑 Something changed between the time these plays were made and market open.
  • Sell half your stuff when it doubles, then let the rest do its thing until you’re ready to exit on your terms 😎.
  • I use up to 1% of all my coins on any trades. If I’m less sure, I might just use 0.5% or even 0.25%. Then I use the “dollar cost average” move ✨.
  • These trades were figured out before the market opened and are based on yester-yay’s info. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter way after the fact 🌟. New moves might make the old thesis go bye-bye.

FAQ - Elmo Gots the Answers 🌟

  • Most of these plays are puts. Are you a grumpy bear? 🐻
    • Nah 🤪. It’s just that these companies had a big party recently and might be a li’l too party-tired. These trades mostly help things settle down or move toward important prices.
  • Are you in on all these plays?
    • Nope 😅. I searched far and wide to find more plays with a good chance of winning to lead us to gain-town 🚀. Go through the list, pick your faves using any extra smart stuff you know, and let’s win big!
  • You said there’s a new play on the same ticker from before. What’s up with that?
    • The new play kicked the old one out. ⚽️ If you haven’t joined in, don’t chase the price. Remember, new data came in, so the new play uses it, but the older play doesn’t.
  • Where are the crayons? Elmo only sees words. 🖍️
    • Click the links up there ⬆️.
  • Did you test this in the past?
    • Oh, yes! Results show a not-too-shabby Sharpe Ratio (1.76) and a winning chance of 63% of trades (plus or minus 7% just ‘cause) ✅.
  • Gimme some history! 📜
    • The real deal Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 and we won 68% of the time. Based on trade performance so far, there’s a 95% chance the win rate will be between 63% and 75% (cool fact from 2023-03-31) 🏆.
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