· wrinkle brain plays · 3 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on April 5, 2023. In the style of a Marine Drill Instructor.

Plays for Execution on April 5, 2023. In the style of a Marine Drill Instructor.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • WYNN 04/21 112P for $2.35 or less
  • HL 04/21 6.5P for $0.20 or less
  • TMF 04/21 9P for $0.25 or less
  • BSX 04/21 49P for $0.50 or less
  • OTLY 04/21 2.5P for $0.10 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • ABNB 04/21 119C for $3.70 or less
  • XOP 04/21 131P for $3.65 or less
  • IYR 04/21 84P for $1.45 or less
  • AR 04/21 23.5P for $0.80 or less
  • XLY 04/21 148P for $2.60 or less

🖍️ Trading Thesis - The Art of Tasty Crayons, Marine Style!

Listen up, maggots! We’re gonna talk about some crayons that taste better than your mama’s apple pie! 🥧

Technical analysis? Indicator-based trading? Pfft! That’s for sissies! We use past price performance to predict today’s prices like a true warrior! 💪

Now, we’re gonna dive into the nitty-gritty of option open interest. With that, we calculate portfolio-level greeks, like Delta and Gamma. It’s like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube blindfolded! 🙈

Some tickers react like a grenade when they hit delta neutral, gamma max, or even both! 💥 We use those reactions to drive our trading signals like a tank through enemy lines! 🚀

Our plays and target entry prices are calculated using a binomial option pricing model, reflecting the size and duration of the reaction. It’s like playing Battleship, but with stocks! 🚢

Notes - Wrinkle your brain, soldier! 🧠

  • If the price has moved past the entry price, be cautious like a sniper in a ghillie suit! 🎯
  • Sell half your position on a double and freeroll the rest like a high-stakes poker game! ♠️
  • Risk up to 1% of your capital on trades, or less if you’re feeling like a scaredy-cat! 🐱
  • Trades are calculated before market open, so keep that in mind when entering late, slowpoke! ⏰
  • New price movement may invalidate the original thesis, so stay sharp! 🔪

FAQ - Got questions, private? 🤔

  • Are these plays mostly puts? Yes, but I ain’t no gay bear! 🐻
  • Entering all these plays? Heck no! I’m just showing you apes some more plays for that sweet gain porn! 🦍💰
  • New play on the same ticker? Out with the old, in with the new! 🔄
  • Where are the crayons? Click the links, dummy! 🖍️
  • Back-tested this? You bet your boots! Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76) and a 63% win rate! 📊

Historical performance?

Realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 68% win rate. There’s a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 63% and 75%. (Stats as of 2023-03-31) 📈

Now, get out there and color those charts with your tasty crayons, soldiers! Hoo-rah! 🎨🇺🇸

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Use of HalfOnADouble's research is at your own risk. In no event should HalfOnADouble or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this report. You further agree to conduct your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision concerning the transaction of any securities covered herein. You should assume that as of the publication date of any content, HalfOnADouble (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a position in all stocks (and/or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of any stock covered herein moves as predicted. Following the publication of any report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered herein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation, conclusions, or opinions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. HalfOnADouble is not registered as an investment advisor in the United States or have similar registration in any other jurisdiction. To the best of our ability and belief, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer. However, such information is presented "as is," without warranty of any kind - whether express or implied. HalfOnADouble makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and HalfOnADouble does not undertake to update or supplement this report or any of the information contained herein.
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