· wrinkle brain plays · 4 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on April 3, 2023. In the style of Count Dracula.

Plays for Execution on April 3, 2023. In the style of Count Dracula.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • BABA 04/21 102P for $3.80 or less
  • GOOG 04/21 104P for $2.20 or less
  • DASH 04/21 63P for $2.35 or less
  • HD 04/21 290P for $3.65 or less
  • Z 04/21 44P for $1.25 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • UNG 04/21 6.5P for $0.30 or less
  • DVN 04/21 50P for $1.20 or less
  • DIA 04/21 333P for $4.05 or less
  • DOCU 04/21 58P for $2.45 or less
  • MRNA 04/21 150P for $5.15 or less

🧛 Trading Scipfăi - Why These Crayons Are More Delicious Than a Vintage Blood Vintage 🍷

Technical analysis and indicator-based trading are about as predictable as a werewolf during a full moon—counting on past price performance to anticipate crucial price levels today. 🌕

My dark analysis is drawn from the current option open interest. With that, I calculate greek riddles for your portfolio—primarily Delta and Gamma. 👻 And once we’ve got those greeks sorted, I can now conjure up how they change at different price points. From there, I find the price points where gamma is on fire 🔥 and delta is close to… well, zero.

Some tickers react like a bat out of hell from delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. 🦇

The trading signals are driven by how prices have danced around these levels in the past, like a spirited polka with the Grim Reaper himself. 💃

The plays and target entry prices I’ve summoned are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflects the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A graveyard of these plays profit 📈 from underlying moves in the stock. The best plays benefit from both the directional move and the increase in IV (Intravenous Volatility 😜).

📝 Notes - Not Your Usual Spells

  • If the price has already defied gravity and risen past the entry price, beware! 🧹⚠️ Something changed between the time these plays were generated (like a vampire fading to a bat) and market open.
  • Sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your own risk. 💸
  • I usually wager up to 1% of my total, immortal capital on trades. But if my faith is weak, I’ll only risk 0.5% or even 0.25% and dollar cost average in, like a vampire creeping ever closer to his prey. 🩸
  • These trades were calculated just before the market lurched open with a howl, so keep in mind they’re based on lore from yesterday. 🌃 Bid farewell to old legends when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movements might stake the original thesis through the heart. 💔

❓ F.A.Q. - To Avoid Further Fangquiry 🧛‍♂️

  • Are these plays mostly puts? Are you a gay bear? 🐻
    • No, my friend. It’s just that these companies have recently moved like lightning ⚡, which implies they could be overextended. These trades simply seek some form of mean-reversion to or from an essential price level.
  • Are you entering all these plays?
    • Absolutely not, fellow creature of the night! I’ve merely offered additional plays with probable edges to help guide apes 🦍 into more lucrative dark paths. Pick your favorite from this handpicked list and indulge in the gains!
  • What about that new play for a ticker from the past?
    • Replace old plays with new ones; the former are now invalid relics, like my once-beating heart. 💔😉 Don’t chase prices—remember, each new day produces fresh data that can alter once solid predictions.
  • Crayons? Those are my snack! Where are they?
    • Ah, fiends, click the links above. 👆
  • Have you back-tested your sorcery?
    • Indeed, I have. Results reveal a moderately bewitching Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with a haunting 63% win rate on trades (and a 7% margin of error). 🔮
  • What is the performance that echoes down the corridors of time?
    • With a realized Sharpe Ratio of 1.85 and a 68% win rate, there’s a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 63% and 75%, per my foreboding crystal ball. (Stats as of 2023-03-31)
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