· degenerate gambling play · 1 min read

Degenerate Gambling Play

High Risk, High Reward Plays surrounding binary events.

High Risk, High Reward Plays surrounding binary events.

The vast majority of these plays are taken with 0.1% of the portfolio. Remember to risk only what you can afford to lose.

April 7 Unemployment Rate Announcement

Play: SPY 04/10 20 Delta Puts enter as close as possible to close on Thursday, April 6.


The unemployment rate is currently expected to be 3.6%. It’s very plausible that the unemployment rate will actually be slightly lower—which is bearish, as the fed will need to be more aggressive to get the unemployment rate up.

Markets are also closed on April 7, so this is strictly a play to try and take advantage of a hopefully bearish gap between Thursday close, and Monday open.

Keep in mind the majority of the tech layoffs have actual termination dates 60-90 days after the layoff announcement. In addition to being on payroll, people are paid a severance, in the tech space, the average severance is 3-4 months. So that’s a combined 5-7 months of salary that those laid off in tech received. Which would put the unemployment increase in May for April, or June for May. Not April for March.

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