· wrinkle brain plays · 3 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on March 29, 2023. In the style of Wednesday Addams.

Plays for Execution on March 29, 2023. In the style of Wednesday Addams.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • SLV 04/21 21P for $0.35 or less
  • KO 04/21 61P for $0.60 or less
  • VLO 04/21 136P for $5.05 or less
  • WAL 04/21 33.5P for $3.25 or less
  • AU 04/21 23P for $0.90 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • FXI 04/21 29.5C for $0.70 or less
  • SNAP 04/21 11.5C for $0.80 or less
  • CVX 04/21 157.5P for $3.20 or less
  • SNOW 04/21 135P for $5.60 or less
  • MTCH 04/21 39P for $1.30 or less

🖍️ A Tantalizing Treatise on Tastier Crayons 🎨

Welcome to the dark side, my friends, where we feast on crayons and dabble in the mysterious world of technical analysis. But fear not, I shall guide you through this twisted realm with wit and charm (or at least a morbid sense of humor). 🦇

In our quest for crayon delicacies, we examine past price performances and use option open interest to calculate the elusive Delta and Gamma. With these ghoulish greeks in hand, we can simulate changes at different price points and pinpoint the most delectable levels. 😋

You see, some tickers react strongly to delta neutral, gamma max, and occasionally both. It’s these reactions that fuel our trading signals and guide us to the most scrumptious crayons. 🌈

Our plays and target entry prices are calculated using a binomial option pricing model, which considers the expected size and duration of the reaction. The best plays are akin to a delightful dance between directional moves and increased IV. 💃

📜 Notes from the Crypt 💀

  • Beware if the price has moved past the entry point. Proceed with caution, for something wicked this way comes.
  • Sell half your position on a double and freeroll the rest, like a game of Russian roulette. 🔫
  • Risk up to 1% of your capital, or less if your conviction is weak. Dollar cost average in, like a vampire sipping blood. 🧛
  • Trades were calculated before market open, so keep in mind that new price movement may invalidate our original thesis.

🧟 FAQ - Frequently Asked Quandaries 🧟

  • Q: Are you a gay bear with all these puts?
    A: Nay, I’m a connoisseur of overextended companies, seeking mean-reversion towards or away from crucial price levels.

  • Q: Are you entering all these plays?
    A: No, my dear. I merely present a curated list of plays to lead apes towards gain porn. Choose wisely. 🦍

  • Q: What if you mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past?
    A: The new play supersedes the old one. Don’t chase the price, for the new play reflects fresh data. 📊

  • Q: Where are the crayons? I only see words.
    A: Click the links above, and let the crayon feast begin. 🖍️

  • Q: Have you back-tested this?
    A: Indeed. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76) and an expected win rate of 63% (±7% margin of error).

  • Q: What is the historical performance?
    A: A realized Sharpe Ratio of 1.88 and a 66% win rate, with a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)

Share:
Use of HalfOnADouble's research is at your own risk. In no event should HalfOnADouble or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this report. You further agree to conduct your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision concerning the transaction of any securities covered herein. You should assume that as of the publication date of any content, HalfOnADouble (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a position in all stocks (and/or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of any stock covered herein moves as predicted. Following the publication of any report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered herein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation, conclusions, or opinions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. HalfOnADouble is not registered as an investment advisor in the United States or have similar registration in any other jurisdiction. To the best of our ability and belief, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer. However, such information is presented "as is," without warranty of any kind - whether express or implied. HalfOnADouble makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and HalfOnADouble does not undertake to update or supplement this report or any of the information contained herein.
Back to Blog