· wrinkle brain plays · 3 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on March 28, 2023. In the style of Edgar Allen Poe.

Plays for Execution on March 28, 2023. In the style of Edgar Allen Poe.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • NEM 04/21 48P for $1.40 or less
  • AI 04/21 25.5P for $2.30 or less
  • Z 04/21 42.5P for $1.70 or less
  • KR 04/21 48.5P for $0.75 or less
  • EQX 04/21 5P for $0.35 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • FXI 04/21 28P for $0.65 or less
  • MU 04/21 60P for $2.75 or less
  • CHPT 04/21 9.5P for $0.50 or less
  • QCOM 04/21 123P for $3.15 or less
  • ROKU 04/21 63C for $3.65 or less

A Tantalizing Treatise on The Tastiest Crayons in Trade 🖍️

Once upon a midnight dreary, the market whispered, weak and weary, Of technical analysis and indicators, oh so eerie, To predict the price levels of today, based on the past, A tale of options, greeks, and the stock market’s vast.

In this macabre analysis of option open interest, we see, Calculations of portfolio-level greeks, Delta and Gamma, with glee, Simulating changes at different price points, as if by a ghostly hand, Discovering where gamma is high, and delta near zero, like a raven in the sand.

Some tickers, like spirits in the night, react strongly, it’s true, Off delta neutral, gamma max, or both, a spectral brew, It is these reactions from the past, that drive our trading signals, Like a pendulum swinging, or the beating heart beneath the floorboards, it jiggles.

A Peculiar Parchment of Notes - Wrinkling Your Brain 🧠

  • If the price has soared past the entry, beware the cryptic change, Between the time these plays were conjured and market open’s strange.
  • Sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest, Like a premature burial, exit at your discretion, lest you be distressed.
  • Risk up to 1% of your capital, like a black cat’s cautious prowl, With less conviction, allocate less, and dollar cost average, like a wise old owl.
  • Trades calculated before market open, based on yesterday’s gloom, Keep in mind, new price movements may invalidate the original doom.

An Enigmatic Encyclopedia of FAQs - Asked by the Curious and the Mad 😱

  • These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
    • Nay! Companies have run up, like a pendulum’s swing, overextended and rare, These trades seek mean-reversion, toward or away from a price level’s lair.
  • Are you entering all these plays?
    • No, dear reader! A dearth of plays in WSB morning talks, so I share, My bag of tools, wider, to lead apes to gain porn, with a flair.
  • You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
    • Replace the old with the new, like a Tell-Tale Heart, unseen, The old play, now invalid, do not chase the price, stay keen.
  • Where are the crayons? I only see words.
    • Click the links above, and let your eyes feast on the colorful herds.
  • Have you back-tested this?
    • Indeed! A moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76) appears, with a win rate of 63%, A 7% margin of error, like a masquerade ball’s mystery, a dance of chance.
  • What is the historical performance?
    • A realized Sharpe Ratio of 1.88, a 66% win rate, as the pendulum swings, With a 95% chance the expected win rate lies between 62% and 77%, as the raven sings. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)
Use of HalfOnADouble's research is at your own risk. In no event should HalfOnADouble or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this report. You further agree to conduct your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision concerning the transaction of any securities covered herein. You should assume that as of the publication date of any content, HalfOnADouble (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a position in all stocks (and/or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of any stock covered herein moves as predicted. Following the publication of any report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered herein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation, conclusions, or opinions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. HalfOnADouble is not registered as an investment advisor in the United States or have similar registration in any other jurisdiction. To the best of our ability and belief, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer. However, such information is presented "as is," without warranty of any kind - whether express or implied. HalfOnADouble makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and HalfOnADouble does not undertake to update or supplement this report or any of the information contained herein.
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