· wrinkle brain plays · 2 min read

Wrinkle Brain Plays

Plays for Execution on March 22, 2023. In the style of Borat.

Plays for Execution on March 22, 2023. In the style of Borat.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • TSLA 04/21 195P for $12.05 or less
  • MARA 04/21 8.5P for $1.10 or less
  • HUT 04/21 1.5P for $0.10 or less
  • DPST 04/21 9P for $1.30 or less
  • OTLY 04/21 2.5P for $0.10 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • SOFI 04/21 6C for $0.20 or less
  • JPM 04/21 130P for $4.10 or less
  • PTON 04/21 10.5C for $0.60 or less
  • UAL 04/21 44.5C for $2.20 or less
  • QCOM 04/21 124C for $4.10 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Yummy in My Tummy (Jagshemash!)

Very nice! Technical analysis and make indicator friend use old prices to guess important prices now.

Here we do analyze of current option open interest. We make big brain play by calculating portfolio-level greeks - mostly Delta and Gamma. Then, using greeks we find best price levels for max gamma and near-neutral delta.

Sometimes, stock price make big move around these levels. We use past reactions to make smart decisions for buy and sells.

Calculations use binomial option pricing model for simulate size and duration of price move. Best plays get money from both direction and increase in IV.

Notes - Wrinkle in Brain, More Knowledge

  • Price moved past entry price? Be careful like road in Kazakhstan! Something changed since plays were calculated.
  • Double position profit? Sell half, freeroll rest at your choice.
  • Me bet 1% of all money on trades. Unsure? Bet 0.5% or 0.25% and make dollar-cost average.
  • Plays calculated before market open. Be aware when enter after. New price can break our big brain analysis.

FAQ - Because Already Been Asked

  • Many puts. You gay bear?
    • No, no. Some company price too high, like castle in the sky. Play mean-revert to or away from important price.
  • You do all these plays?
    • No, no. Share many play here for all apes make gain porn. Use extra brain, pick favorite play, make win.
  • New play same ticker, what do?
    • Old play not good anymore, like expired cheese. Say goodbye. Follow new play.
  • Where crayons? See words only.
    • Click link above, find tasty crayon.
  • Back-test, you do?
    • Yes, yes! We see Sharpe Ratio 1.76, win rate 63% (error margin 7%, not bad!)
  • History perform?
    • Realized Sharpe Ratio 1.88, win rate 66%. 95% sure win rate between 62% and 77%. (Stats from future, 2023-02-28, shhh!)
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